China's Rise and America's Retreat: A New Global Empire Emerges

In the initial segment of a two-part commentary crafted for next week’s Boao Forum, John Keane, a politics professor at the University of Sydney, presents an unconventional analysis of the worldwide upheaval sparked by the Trump administration. According to him, "Maga" does not signify an attempt to reclaim America's global supremacy; instead, it indicates an empire in decline, facing off against a revitalized China—a potent economic, diplomatic, and geopolitical adversary since the latter part of the 18th century.

An ancient Chinese adage goes: as the winds of change blow, some construct barriers while others erect windmills. Today’s tumultuous era vividly echoes this wisdom, characterized by dramatic shifts including the rise of a distinctively novel and potent Chinese imperial power—a phenomenon unseen before in prior global narratives—contrasted sharply against the insular isolationism and retrenchment of what was once a dominant worldwide empire. United States .

Understanding these globally influential forces ought to be essential for anyone who thinks critically; however, this endeavor is impeded by significant amounts of posturing, propaganda, and misinformation, as well as surprisingly broad agreement with the notion that the U.S. President is Donald Trump
His teachings about America’s rejuvenation and supremacy hold some truth. Indeed, those who support or watch Trump’s perspective on America’s contentious international position anticipate significant challenges ahead for the globe. Even though many express skepticism or strong opposition towards President Trump’s comments—such as his peculiar directive regarding “windmills”—they often accept his belief that the U.S., notwithstanding its recent downturns, remains the leading force globally and will continue to do so perpetually due to the bold direction set by the fresh Trump administration.
Portrayed as urgent updates aimed at helping viewers comprehend this pivotal time filled with dramatic shifts, Trump’s latest win is seen through his lens: an emblem of resolve addressing national decay; marking the dawn (as he boasted during his 2025 inaugural address) of a splendid era known as one of the four greatest periods in American history—a period where the United States asserts itself as the foremost nation, highly revered across Earth.

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A problem with this perspective is its failure to recognize how the U.S. has frittered away its global dominance and financed the growth of its main competitor over the last forty years. The decline of America did not begin recently. Ignore the fact that some politicians now try to pander to Vladimir Putin
Consider Russia’s situation. Reflect on the failed military incursions, the conflicts lost, the mishandled negotiations akin to those led by Blinken, along with the deceitful statements, and the blatant disregard for what is known as the "rule-based international order." Also contemplate the mockery and amusement caused today due to a faltering U.S.-style democratic system. Now consider the significant twist of fate: how America’s diplomatic acknowledgment of the People's Republic of China, followed by substantial support contributing to extensive reforms, helped bring about China’s resurgence from two hundred years of oppression back into the spotlight of world affairs.
As a result, thanks largely to actions taken by the United States, China can now be viewed not just as another country or major player but rather as an emerging empire. By defining an empire as one where political, administrative, diplomatic, cultural, and military influence extends well past national boundaries, it becomes clear—detailed extensively in my book *China's Galaxy Empire* (2024)—that China is swiftly developing such expansive sway globally. This nascent imperial entity poses a powerful challenge to American dominance worldwide; indeed, it represents a stronger competitor compared even to the former Soviet Union during the Cold War era. In reality, the burgeoning Chinese empire stands out as perhaps the gravest strategic menace the U.S. has encountered since establishing itself as a republic towards the end of the eighteenth century.

A new empire

Chinese windmill shadows whirl across America’s walls, yet this reality remains overlooked amidst the disparaging remarks and grim predictions propagated by MAGA supporters. Their stance is rooted in orientalist ignorance and a refusal to acknowledge China’s imperial aspirations, thereby fueling their conviction in American exceptionalism. Let us then examine some crucial pieces of evidence.

When ranked by total assets, the four largest banks globally are Chinese. China has surpassed institutions like the World Bank. International Monetary Fund and the World Bank To grow into the biggest international lender supported by its dedicated financial service entities like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank China is leading the worldwide challenge to the global financial system dominated by the US dollar and its rentier finance capitalist model. In mid-2023, the renminbi surpassed the US dollar for the first time in China’s cross-border transactions. Thanks to a $1 trillion trade surplus in 2024—the United States has not seen such an advantage since 1975—China stands as the top trader globally and holds ownership of half the world’s patents.

Even with the attempts led by the United States to reduce economic ties with China through imposing tariffs, refusing to buy its goods and services, and prohibiting the trade and shipment of new communication devices, Huawei , ZTE And other Chinese firms, China's economy – unlike the previous one Soviet Union - represents an open political economy dominated by large corporations intertwined with governmental power structures. This emerging form of state capitalism draws significant upstream investments from prominent international firms like Airbus , Samsung , Toyota BASF, the large chemical company from Germany, along with OCBC Bank from Singapore and the lithium-ion battery maker Durapower Holdings, were mentioned. In the meantime, China manufactures about one-third of global manufactured products, surpassing the output of the United States. Japan , Germany , South Korea and Britain combined. China is the European Union 's and India is the primary trading partner for goods. It leads as an investor and trader within the globe’s largest free-trade zone. Africa ; and in Latin America, for the first time in 200 years since gaining independence from the Spanish Empire and effectively depending on the U.S. economically and militarily, nations like Chile , Peru , Ecuador , Uruguay and Colombia are increasingly moving closer to China.

Significant global changes are occurring in China regarding daily life as well. Having once experienced life expectancies similar to Western countries from a hundred years ago, life expectancy has risen dramatically—from 51 years in 1962 to 78.6 years in 2022, based on World Bank figures—surpassing levels seen in the United States, where healthy life expectancy at birth has declined. Among China’s burgeoning middle class of around 400 million people—who stand to benefit from initiatives aimed at building a “moderately prosperous society”—global expansion has become an integral part of their lifestyle. These individuals remain loyal to the system, driven by aspirations for homes, cars, and wealth; they frequently visit shopping centers and adeptly navigate societal norms—they often jest about following Party directives yet heeding their spouse’s advice. The rise of this new middle class carries considerable social weight due to increased opportunities abroad through study programs and substantial government investment in tertiary education—a near tenfold growth over the last twenty years. Today, China outpaces not only India and the U.S., but also nations such as Japan and Germany in producing science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) graduates. France , Italy , Britain and Canada combined.

One cannot ignore this significant reality: the People's Liberation Army and its approach to militarized peace. As the planet’s biggest standing army, it boasts 2 million personnel supported by growing nuclear capabilities, the highest number of submarines globally, the world's largest amphibious assault vessel, and advanced military equipment. The PLA plays a substantial role in United Nations peacekeeping operations. In Libya , Yemen and Sudan , the PLA has already honed the challenging military skills required for evacuating citizens from conflict areas. This capability has been bolstered by China's resolution of disagreements with neighboring countries. including India The PLA’s approach to peaceful militarization is supported by an extensive military-industrial-aerospace sector, encompassing large corporations with names like China North Industries Group Corporation and others. China Aviation Industry Corporation It is bolstered by ambitions for outer-space dominance, significant dependence on astute diplomatic strategies, and an adherence to a novel and powerful doctrine of combat that suggests, as the Chinese proverb goes, that forcibly plucked melons never ripen properly. According to the People's Liberation Army’s philosophy, triumph in conflict requires discipline, patience, and the capability and readiness to bide one's time (wuwei, often interpreted as ‘non-action’). Those who act impulsively court folly. Victory—or avoidance—of wars is achieved through cunning maneuvers designed to exhaust or intimidate adversaries without resorting to violence.

Imperial resilience

The signs of China’s increasing global influence are undeniable, as are its unconventional sources of strength.

At home, the emerging empire’s governance structure isn’t a simplistic and volatile version of “autocracy,” “authoritarianism,” or “totalitarianism” as often asserted by Maga supporters and experts alike. Communist Party has long been developing sophisticated, resilient approaches to governance and what its leaders call a "functioning democracy." Within the core regions of the empire, the administration resembles a single-party "shadow democracy" tailored for China. This political framework combines centralized control with anticorruption measures, grassroots tribunals, early-warning systems, and experimental mechanisms for government oversight. Overseas, supported by major telecom corporations like Tencent And like Huawei, this emerging Chinese empire possesses post-territorial characteristics. As the initial global empire to emerge during the era of digital interconnected communication, China avoids the arrogance and pitfalls of early modern European empires. These empires boldly seized territories and maritime pathways, forcibly assimilating populations with diverse languages and customs into defined nation-states, all while relying heavily on central capitals both domestically and within their colonial outposts. Instead, China’s expansion takes a distinct approach. state-owned corporations And rather than imposing restrictions, governing bodies favor unrestricted movements, corridor openings, open frontiers, and extensive trade deals. Outside its boundaries, Chinese leaders encourage swift and unhindered circulation of funds, commodities, and services, alongside supporting United Nations organizations and establishing fresh transnational entities like Brics and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation .

Here’s what matters: China isn’t your typical land-grabbing empire or a sea-faring nation driven by territorial expansion. Instead, it operates as an empire focused on financial capital movements, the dissemination of cutting-edge information technology, and access to international markets for its cost-effective products and services. By constructing high-speed railway lines, modernizing airport facilities, and enhancing shipping channels, China links urban centers with rural areas. Additionally, it is developing comprehensive logistical hub networks globally. These infrastructures integrate various transportation modes such as air travel, rail transit, roads, and cargo terminals, leveraging advanced info-tech and robotic solutions to streamline package distribution systems. Furthermore, investments are being made to expand refrigerated supply chains for transporting food items, pharmaceuticals, and vaccines across borders. Supported by its strong reliance on interconnected digital communication platforms, seamless movement rather than physical control over territories defines the essence of this evolving Chinese empire.

A peaking power?

Supporters of Maga, along with numerous Western politicians, diplomats, and journalists, overlook these various indicators of resilience. Instead, they optimistically dismiss the idea with overused phrases suggesting that China’s emergence will soon lead to collapse. Followers of Trump particularly emphasize talk about China’s “ascendancy” and “spread,” portraying it as an “existential challenge” to the West. Immediately after, though, they forecast the rapid disintegration of this new Chinese regime due to factors like falling fertility rates, increasing longevity, issues within the property market, high youth joblessness, reliance on exports, environmental degradation, and governmental misconduct.

Certain advocates of the Maga philosophy reconcile conflicting ideas by characterizing China as a “power in decline.” They assert that because China has risen, it poses significant risks domestically and internationally. This rise is accompanied by domestic suppression of individuals alongside aggressive actions such as seizing resources, imposing economic sanctions, conducting military interventions, and engaging in various forms of external aggression. According to this viewpoint, the solution lies in strengthening the military might of outside forces, particularly the United States, through displays of force, stern rhetoric, relentless negotiation tactics, and unyielding confrontation with China—never wavering from eye contact.
As China faces these challenges, proponents argue that the U.S., deemed Earth’s premier champion for good, ought to leverage its strengths and assets aggressively. In essence, they believe arrogance will triumph over adversity.

Post-imperial denial

It could very well be that the youthful yet robust Chinese empire unexpectedly encounters sudden obstacles and unexpected jolts. Should this occur, its premature end would likely bring about dire consequences for the entire globe, including the United States. This event would sever global supply chains. UN peacekeeping efforts would stumble, and the organization’s operations, heavily supported by China as its top contributor, would cease functioning effectively. A devastating internal conflict within China’s central regions might ensue. Millions seeking refuge would flee across its borders into neighboring areas, causing regional instability.

No one can definitively state whether these outcomes will occur or predict the actual consequences for the globe should China’s too-big-to-fail status falter. Instead, we ought to focus on another aspect of this situation and highlight the critical oversight inherent in the MAGA worldview: their obsessive reluctance to acknowledge that the American empire is ensnared in the patterns of prolonged decline, which inadvertently benefits a remarkably tenacious Chinese global empire.

What are the signs of an extended period of American decline? The most apparent indicators include economic difficulties challenging US dominance. China is emerging as a leader in areas like global investments, international trade, and manufacturing sectors. AI The impact of digital technology is indisputable. Similarly threatening to American economic dominance is China’s push to dismantle the dollar-centric system by internationalizing the renminbi via its national banks, currency swaps, gold reserves, a novel intercontinental payment platform, and a government-controlled electronic currency.

Fans of Maga and U.S. officials ought to be concerned about these economic developments, yet significant hurdles also face the American empire. One key issue is legitimacy. As historians remind us, successful empires typically strive to mask their ambitions by persuading both domestic populations and foreign allies or subjects that their influence serves the greater good. These empires seek to resonate with those whose lives they impact from afar.

Leaders within China’s Communist Party understand this: telling the nation's narrative effectively holds extraordinary strategic significance for them. It's noteworthy how the emerging Chinese sphere lacks a singular dominating ideological framework. Instead, official communications from party members, diplomats, and media professionals exhibit a multifaceted 'yin-yang' characteristic. These messages often emphasize practical aspects like economic stability, growth measured through GDP figures, wealth creation, and prosperity. However, they interweave these themes with core beliefs including ‘harmonious society’, adherence to Confucian values, rule-based governance, democratization of global politics, ecological progress, and pride in ancient cultural heritage.
Common expressions used frequently encompass terms related to territorial integrity ('territorial sovereignty') and national honor ('national dignity'). Themes of peace, anti-colonial sentiment, and defense against external threats feature prominently too. Additionally, discussions around socialism coexist alongside references to Marxism.

Regardless of opinions regarding the coherence or accuracy of this multicolored lexicon, China’s leadership and state propagandists keenly understand the risks associated with rigid ideology. Recognizing that sowing thorns leads to wounds, they aim to appear robust yet adaptable—benevolent enforcers serving “the people,” resolute promoters of world peace, economic prosperity, effective governance, and ecological durability. This deliberate obscurity allows China’s officials to navigate shifting political landscapes and confuse adversaries. Consequently, such confusion empowers them to achieve significant influence with minimal effort. Unlike the United States, where global credibility is diminishing rapidly, strategic ambiguity enhances China’s diplomatic agility and power across various international contexts.

The second part of this commentary will be released on Friday.

John Keane serves as a politics professor at the University of Sydney. His most recent publication is titled 'China's Galaxy Empire: Wealth, Power, War, and Peace in the New Chinese Century'.

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China's Rise and America's Retreat: A New Global Empire Emerges

A new empire

Imperial resilience

A peaking power?

Post-imperial denial